Cal Baptist University Men's Soccer

CONFIDENTIAL: PRE-MATCH OPPOSITION ANALYSIS

Opponent: California Baptist Lancers (CBU)

Match Date: [Your Match Date]

Analyst: Positional Analyst

Primary Match Focus: This report's projected lineup and primary player data are based on the most recent fixture, a 3-0 victory against Air Force (AF) (23.10.2025). Tactical patterns are primarily drawn from the 1-0 victory against Grand Canyon (GCU) (13.10.2025), representing a stable 11v11 picture. Specific player data from individual full match reports (AF, GCU, UVU, UNLV, SJSU) is integrated throughout to provide granular evidence.

Data Source Note: Aggregate quantitative metrics are drawn from the updated 5-match Team Report (including AF game). Match-specific data is drawn from individual match reports/box scores (AF, GCU, UVU, UNLV, SJSU). Data for PPDA, Attacks per minute, etc., for the AF match is drawn from the full AF Match Report PDF.

1. Projected Lineup and Rotations

Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1

This is the system CBU employed in their 3-0 win vs. Air Force (from minute 1 to 37 and 46 to 78 - AF Match Report p.3) and the 1-0 win vs. GCU.

Projected Starting XI (Based on Air Force Match, 23.10.2025):

• GK: #1 H. Do Rego

• LB: #23 U. Martinez

• LCB: #3 H. Conteh

• RCB: #5 W. Lawson

• RB: #2 A. Cruz

• LDMF: #6 J. Quispel

• RDMF: #8 S. Charalampous

• LAMF: #15 D. Arguello

• AMF: #16 T. Marth

• RAMF: #22 F. Ezekwuka

• CF: #9 B. D'Agostino

Key Rotations:

1. #20 N. Coope (CF) for #9 B. D'Agostino (CF): Coope started vs UVU (2 shots) and UNLV (1 shot, 0.40 xG); came on vs AF (2 shots, 0.01 xG, 87% pass acc). D'Agostino started vs AF (2 goals, 4 shots/3 SOG, 0.74 xG), GCU (0 shots), and SJSU (2 shots, 1 SOG). D'Agostino is the preferred starter, offering a higher goal threat (2.50 aggregate xG vs 0.99 for Coope).

2. #17 L. Jones (LAMF) for #15 D. Arguello (LAMF): Arguello started vs AF (0 shots, won 5/12 duels - 42%, 96% pass acc). Jones started vs UNLV (4 shots, 2 key passes) and SJSU (4 shots, 2 SOG), came on vs AF (5 shots/2 SOG, 0.69 xG, 52% pass acc). Jones offers more direct attacking threat but Arguello provides possession security.

3. #13 K. Robson (RB) for #2 A. Cruz (RB): Cruz started vs AF (won 7/21 duels - 33%, 1/4 def duels won - 25%) and SJSU (won 2/9 def duels - 22%). Robson started vs GCU (won 2/7 def duels - 29%) and UNLV (won 3/5 def duels - 60%). Robson appears slightly more solid defensively.

4. #7 A. Pino (LDMF) for #6 J. Quispel (LDMF): Quispel started vs Air Force (won 2/6 duels - 33%, 1/2 def duels won - 50%) and UVU (won 1/6 def duels - 17%). Pino started vs GCU (86% def duel win) and UNLV (50% def duel win). Pino is the demonstrably stronger defensive option.

2. Individual Player Profiles

GOALKEEPER

• #1 H. Do Rego

• Player Role/Archetype: Shot-Stopper.

• Key Strengths: 1. Reliable: Posted a 4-save shutout vs. Air Force (3 reflex saves - AF Match Report p.11). 2. Decisive: Made 5 crucial saves in the 1-0 win over GCU. 3. High Claim Success: Claimed 4/4 crosses vs GCU. 4. Good Distributor: 89% pass accuracy vs AF (41/46 passes); 97% vs UNLV.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Distribution Under Pressure: Pass accuracy dropped to 69% vs GCU. Accuracy beyond own third was 71% vs AF (10/14 - AF Match Report p.11).

DEFENDERS

• #23 U. Martinez (Outside Back)

• Player Role/Archetype: Attacking Full-Back.

• Key Strengths: 1. Primary Ball Progressor: Attempted 6 fwd passes vs AF (4 successful, 67% - CBU vs AF Players p.5); Completed 14/16 vs UVU. 2. Effective Creator: Completed 2/2 crosses vs UVU; 1/1 key passes vs UVU and SJSU. 3. Strong Ground Defender: Won 6/8 defensive duels (75%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.5); 6/7 (86%) vs GCU.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. High-Risk in Possession: Lost possession 10 times vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.5); 18 times vs SJSU. 2. Aerial Liability: Won 3/4 aerial duels vs AF (75%), but aggregate win rate is only 50% and lost key aerials vs SJSU (0/2).

• #3 H. Conteh (Center Back)

• Player Role/Archetype: Ball-Playing Defender & Set-Piece Threat.

• Key Strengths: 1. Set-Piece Goal Threat: Scored a goal vs. Air Force (from 3 shots, 0.93 xG - AF Match Report p.13). 2. Elite 1v1 Defender: Won 3/3 defensive duels (100%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.4); 4/4 (100%) vs GCU. 3. Accurate Short Passer: 89% pass accuracy vs AF (39/44 passes - CBU vs AF Players p.4); 90% vs UVU.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Poor Long-Ball Distribution: Completed 2/3 long passes vs AF (67%), but aggregate accuracy is 32%. 2. Limited Open Play Progression: Only 3/4 passes to final third successful vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.4); 2/6 vs GCU.

• #5 W. Lawson (Center Back)

• Player Role/Archetype: Ball-Playing Defender (Primary).

• Key Strengths: 1. Primary Playmaker: Completed 33/41 forward passes vs AF (80% - CBU vs AF Players p.3); 10/10 vs UVU. 2. Excellent Long-Ball Distributor: Completed 11/16 long passes (69%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.3); 6/8 (75%) vs GCU. 3. Set-Piece Goal Threat: Scored the winner vs. GCU (from 2 shots). 4. Strong Defensively: Won 4/5 defensive duels (80%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.3); 6/9 (67%) vs GCU.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Vulnerable to Dribblers: Lost 2/3 offensive duels vs GCU. 2. Aerial Weakness: Won only 1/4 aerial duels (25%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.3). Aggregate win rate is 50%.

• #2 A. Cruz (Outside Back)

• Player Role/Archetype: Defensive Full-Back (Liability).

• Key Strengths: 1. Reliable Short Passer: 92% pass accuracy vs AF (49/53 passes - CBU vs AF Players p.2). 2. Willing Progressor: Completed 14/15 forward passes vs AF (93% - CBU vs AF Players p.2). 3. Can Deliver Crosses: Completed 2/4 crosses vs AF (50% - AF Match Report p.21).

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Extreme Defensive Liability: Won only 1/4 defensive duels (25%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.2); 2/9 (22%) vs SJSU. Aggregate win rate is 38%. 2. Poor Ball Winner: Won 0/2 loose ball duels vs AF (0% - CBU vs AF Players p.2). Aggregate 20%.

MIDFIELDERS

• #6 J. Quispel (LDMF)

• Player Role/Archetype: Deep-Lying Playmaker (High-Risk).

• Key Strengths: 1. Elite Progressive Passer: Completed 4/6 passes to final third vs AF (67% - CBU vs AF Players p.7); 8/9 vs UVU. 2. Press Resistant Short Passer: 86% pass accuracy vs AF (31/36 passes - CBU vs AF Players p.7). Completed 5/6 long passes vs AF (83%).

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Major Defensive Liability: Won 1/2 defensive duels (50%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.7), but 1/6 (17%) vs UVU. Aggregate win rate 23%. 2. Aerial Liability: 0/0 aerial duels vs AF. Aggregate 50%. 3. Turnover Prone: Lost possession 9 times vs UVU.

• #8 S. Charalampous (RDMF)

• Player Role/Archetype: Box-to-Box Midfielder (The Engine).

• Key Strengths: 1. Elite Duel Winner: Won 7/13 duels (54%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.6); 19/26 (73%) vs GCU. 2. Ball-Winning Machine: Made 9 interceptions vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.6); 6 vs UVU. 3. Willing Shooter: 2 shots vs. Air Force (0 on target, 0.01 xG - AF Match Report p.13). 4. Good Passer: 92% pass accuracy vs AF (58/63 passes - CBU vs AF Players p.6).

• Key Weaknesses: 1. No Creative Output: 1 key pass vs AF, but 0 in GCU, UVU, UNLV, SJSU games. 2. Poor Long Passer: Completed 1/3 long passes vs AF (33% - CBU vs AF Players p.6); Aggregate 41%. 3. Poor Aerials vs AF: Won 0/2 aerial duels vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.6), despite strong aggregate (67%).

• #15 D. Arguello (LAMF)

• Player Role/Archetype: Possession-Winger (Recycler).

• Key Strengths: 1. Excellent Defensively: Won 3/7 defensive duels (43%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.8); 7/11 (64%) vs GCU. 2. Very Secure in Possession: 96% pass accuracy vs AF (27/28 passes - CBU vs AF Players p.8); 94% vs UVU.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. No Creative Threat: 0 key passes vs AF, GCU, UVU. Aggregate xA 0.00. 2. No Goal Threat: 0 shots vs Air Force, GCU, UVU. Aggregate xG 0.14. 3. Ineffective Wide Delivery: 0/1 crosses vs AF (AF Match Report p.21).

• #16 T. Marth (AMF)

• Player Role/Archetype: Goal-Scoring Creator.

• Key Strengths: 1. Primary Creator: Provided the assist vs. Air Force (from 2 crosses - CBU vs AF Players p.9); Assist vs UVU. Leads team in aggregate xA (1.15). 2. Clinical Finisher: Scored 1 goal from 1 shot vs UVU. Aggregate 2 goals on 0.78 xG. 3. Good Defensively vs AF: Won 9/11 duels (82%) including 3/3 defensive duels vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.9).

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Inconsistent Passing: Pass accuracy 91% vs AF (10/11 passes), but aggregate 72%. 2. Low Volume of Actions: Only 30 actions in 57 mins vs AF.

• #22 F. Ezekwuka (RAMF)

• Player Role/Archetype: Traditional Winger (Dribbler).

• Key Strengths: 1. Elite 1v1 Dribbler: Completed 10/14 dribbles (71%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.10); 13/14 (93%) vs GCU. Aggregate 61% success. 2. Wins Offensive Duels: Won 12/16 offensive duels (75%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.10); 15/19 (79%) vs GCU. 3. High Defensive Work Rate: Won 4/4 defensive duels (100%) vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.10); 3/4 (75%) vs GCU.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Poor End Product: 1/3 crosses successful vs AF (33% - AF Match Report p.21), but aggregate accuracy only 10%. 2. High-Risk: Lost possession 10 times vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.10); 18 times vs SJSU.

FORWARD

• #9 B. D'Agostino (CF)

• Player Role/Archetype: Poacher.

• Key Strengths: 1. Elite Scoring Instincts: Scored 2 goals from 4 shots (3 SOG) vs. Air Force (xG 0.74 - AF Match Report p.13); Scored 1 goal vs UVU. Leads team significantly in aggregate xG (2.50). 2. High Box Presence: Active in the box vs AF (3 touches). 3. Good Dribbler: 4/6 successful dribbles vs AF (67% - CBU vs AF Players p.11). Aggregate 50%.

• Key Weaknesses: 1. Extreme Aerial Liability: Won 1/1 aerial duels vs AF, but aggregate win rate only 22%. 2. Weak in Ground Duels: Won 13/29 duels (45%) vs AF, but aggregate win rate 31%. 3. Turnover Prone: Lost possession 6 times vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.11); 19 times vs GCU.

3. Key Player Identification (Expanded)

1. #16 T. Marth (AMF): Confirmed primary creator with assists vs Air Force (1A, 0.09 xA - CBU vs AF Players p.9) and UVU. Leads team in aggregate xA (1.15). Also clinical finisher (scored vs UVU). Central hub. Effective defensively vs AF (9/11 duels won).

2. #9 B. D'Agostino (CF): Confirmed primary finisher with 2 goals vs Air Force (on 0.74 xG) and 1 vs UVU. Leads team significantly in aggregate xG (2.50). Focal point for final actions.

3. #8 S. Charalampous (RDMF): The Engine. Dominant duels (73% win rate vs GCU, 67% vs SJSU). Vital for regaining possession (9 interceptions vs AF - CBU vs AF Players p.6, 6 vs UVU).

4. #23 U. Martinez (LB): Key creator from deep. High-quality crossing (2/2 vs UVU). Second on team in aggregate xA (0.55). Crucial for left-side build-up. Solid defensively vs AF (6/8 def duels won - CBU vs AF Players p.5).

5. #5 W. Lawson (RCB): Primary ball progressor from the back. Excellent long passing (69% acc vs AF - CBU vs AF Players p.3, 75% vs GCU) and initiates attacks (33/41 fwd passes vs AF). Set-piece threat (goal vs GCU). Solid defensively vs AF (4/5 def duels won).

4. Analysis of Attacking Zones (Expanded)

Zone: Between the Lines

• Who Operates Here: #16 T. Marth (AMF), #15 D. Arguello (LAMF)

• Tactical Pattern: "Star and Recycler." #16 Marth creates/scores (Assist vs Air Force, Assist & Goal vs UVU). #15 Arguello recycles possession safely (96% pass acc vs AF) but offers no direct threat (0 shots vs Air Force). Marth looks for pockets, Arguello feeds him or Martinez.

• Defensive Counter: Deny #16 Marth space to turn. Aggressive marking by DM. Can press him (lost possession 10 times vs UVU). Allow #15 Arguello possession in non-dangerous areas; focus on cutting passing lanes to Marth.

Zone: Space Behind the Back Line (via Wide Channels)

• Who Operates Here: #9 B. D'Agostino (CF), #23 U. Martinez (LB), #22 F. Ezekwuka (RAMF)

• Tactical Pattern: Primary chance creation method.

1. Left-Side Cross: #5 Lawson initiates, #23 Martinez delivers crosses (0/1 vs AF).

2. Right-Side 1v1: Look for #22 Ezekwuka to isolate and beat his man (10/14 dribbles vs AF; 13/14 vs GCU) before attempting a cross (1/3 vs AF; 0/1 vs GCU).

• Defensive Counter:

1. vs. Left Side: Force #23 Martinez deep/defend. Exploit space behind him (lost possession 10 times vs AF).

2. vs. D'Agostino: CBs deny low passes/space to turn (scored 2 vs Air Force). Invite high crosses due to his extremely poor aerial ability (won 1/1 vs AF but aggregate 22% win rate).

3. vs. Right Side: Double-team #22 Ezekwuka. Show him outside onto his crossing foot (aggregate 10% accuracy). Concede the cross attempt.

5. Tactical Analysis: Styles of Play

Attacking Style of Play

• Patient Build-up: CBU dominated possession vs AF (68% - AF Match Report p.4) and prefers methodical, "Positional Attacks" (45 vs AF compared to 0 counterattacks - AF Match Report p.5). Build-up starts with CBs.

• Key Build-up Patterns:

1. Lawson Diagonals: #5 Lawson (RCB) plays long diagonals (69% acc vs AF - CBU vs AF Players p.3) or progressive passes (33/41 fwd passes vs AF) often targeting wide areas.

2. Wide 1v1 Isolation: Seek 1v1s for wingers. Right: #22 Ezekwuka dribbles (10/14 vs AF). Left: Get #23 Martinez into crossing positions (0/1 vs AF).

3. Central Hub: Final third play goes through #16 Marth (AMF), the primary creator (Assist vs Air Force), looking for #9 D'Agostino (2 goals vs Air Force).

• Set-Piece Threat: Significant threat. #3 Conteh scored vs AF from a corner delivered by #16 Marth. #5 Lawson (goal vs GCU), and #8 Charalampous (goal vs UNLV) also scored recently. CBU had 10 corners vs AF (AF Match Report p.5).

Defending Style of Play

• Mid-Block Press: Not a high-pressing team. PPDA vs AF was 5.8, but this is likely skewed by AF's low pass volume. PPDA average is 9.2, indicating they typically allow build-up in opponent half.

• Patient & Zonal: Compact 4-2-3-1 shape, engage most aggressively in middle third. Won 51% of duels vs AF (AF Match Report p.4).

• Funnel to Charalampous: Relies on #8 Charalampous as ball-winner (9 interceptions vs AF - CBU vs AF Players p.6).

• Vulnerable Wide 1v1: RB #2 Cruz won only 1/4 defensive duels vs AF (CBU vs AF Players p.2).

Transitions

• Attacking Transition (After Gaining Possession):

• Trigger: Ball recovery by #8 Charalampous (9 interceptions vs AF), #5 Lawson (11 recoveries vs AF), or #2 A. Cruz (8 recoveries vs AF - AF Match Report p.18).

• Primary Outlet: First look wide to #22 Ezekwuka for 1v1 dribbling (10/14 vs AF).

• Secondary Outlet: Centrally to #16 Marth to secure possession. CBU had 75 recoveries vs AF (AF Match Report p.18).

• Defensive Transition (After Losing Possession):

• Vulnerability: Exposed when full-backs (#23 Martinez - 5 losses in own half vs AF; #2 Cruz - 8 losses in own half vs AF - AF Match Report p.17) are caught high.

• Counter-Press: Not aggressive. Rely on "reactionary" defending from #8 Charalampous (9 int vs AF) and #3 Conteh (3/3 def duels won vs AF).

6. Tactical Recommendations: How to Exploit Weaknesses

1. Target Player: #2 A. Cruz (RB) - PRIMARY TARGET

• Identified Weakness: Catastrophically poor 1v1 defending.

• Supporting Data: Won 1/4 def duels vs AF (25% - CBU vs AF Players p.2); Won 2/9 vs SJSU (22%). Aggregate win rate 38%.

• Recommended Attacking Strategy: Isolate our best winger on Cruz. Attack him aggressively 1v1. Trigger high press when he receives the ball in his half (8 losses in own half vs AF).

2. Target Player: #9 B. D'Agostino (CF)

• Identified Weakness: Extremely poor aerial ability despite height.

• Supporting Data: Won 1/1 aerial duels vs AF, but 0/1 vs GCU, 0/5 vs SJSU, 0/1 vs UNLV. Aggregate win rate only 22%.

• Recommended Attacking Strategy: Deny ball to feet (scored 2 vs Air Force this way). Be physical. On high balls/crosses, attack the ball aggressively – he is a non-threat. Funnel their play into crossing situations targeting him.

3. Target Player: #6 J. Quispel (LDMF)

• Identified Weakness: Major defensive liability in ground duels.

• Supporting Data: Won 1/2 def duels vs AF (50% - CBU vs AF Players p.7); 17% vs UVU (won 1/6). Aggregate win rate 23%.

• Recommended Attacking Strategy: Weak link in pivot. Instruct AMF/Wingers to make driving runs directly at him. He is a good passer but cannot defend 1v1.

4. Target Player: #22 F. Ezekwuka (RAMF)

• Identified Weakness: Elite dribbler but poor end product from crosses.

• Supporting Data: 1/3 cross accuracy vs AF (33% - CBU vs AF Players p.10); 0% vs GCU (0/1), UVU (0/1), SJSU (0/4). Aggregate accuracy 10%.

• Recommended Attacking Strategy: Do not over-commit. Show him outside. Force the cross attempt – it is effectively a turnover. Prevents him cutting inside.

5. Target Area: CBU's Build-up Under Pressure (Especially Left Side)

• Identified Weakness: Prone to losses when pressed in own half; Conteh's long passing inconsistent under pressure.

• Supporting Data: #23 Martinez lost possession 10 times vs AF, #3 Conteh lost possession 5 times vs AF (CBU vs AF player reports). #3 Conteh poor long pass accuracy (67% vs AF but aggregate 32%; 0/5 vs GCU). Aggregate: Martinez (47 losses in own half), Conteh (35 losses in own half). CBU lost the ball 107 times vs AF (AF Match Report p.17).

• Recommended Attacking Strategy: Implement a high press, particularly targeting triggers on their left side (GK to Conteh/Martinez). Force errors or inaccurate long balls from Conteh.